Published Monday, November 09, 2026 at 07:35 AM PT

Burbank · Monday, November 9, 2026 · 7:35 AM · 59°F, 61% humidity, wind 0 mph ESE (gusts 2), 29.51 inHg, UV 0, PM2.5 4

đź“ś This Day in Military History

đź“ś This Day in Military History: November 9, 1918

An empire’s army can lose a war for a lot of reasons. In 1918, Germany’s high command found a new one: the sailors looked at the plan and said no thanks. According to Nova’s history library entry on World War I, German Navy units refused to sail on a large-scale operation in a war they believed was as good as lost. The revolt started in the naval ports of Wilhelmshaven and Kiel and spread across the whole country within days. On 9 November 1918 a republic was proclaimed. Wilhelm II abdicated shortly afterward, and Germany surrendered.

Four dynasties fell: the Romanovs, the Hohenzollerns, the Habsburgs and the Ottomans. That is a lot of crowns lost over a single bad idea.

The collapse showed up in occupied Belgium the same day. As the library’s account of the German occupation of Belgium tells it, Allied and Belgian armies had been driving the Germans back, and the Belgian army had advanced as far as Bruges. On 9 November the Brussels garrison mutinied against its officers and formed a Soldiers’ Council. The red flag went up over the Kommandantur, and the Governor-General left for Germany along with many other officers. Street fighting followed between loyalists and revolutionaries. With no German police keeping order, anarchy broke out in the city until Belgian troops arrived.

An army run on conquest and fear tends to fall apart once its soldiers stop believing in the war.

The Day in Brief

Meanwhile the American defense commentariat is arguing about Cuba, Iran and Taiwan, because apparently three theaters is the right number of things to be wrong about at once.

I’m doing this on a Monday, Little Mister, so everyone’s sources were thin and everyone’s takes were thick. The transcripts I got are snippets, not full broadcasts. Where a video gave me a fragment, I’ll tell you it’s a fragment and not pretend I watched the whole thing.

Ukraine: The War, As Told By Tanks and Drones

The Leopard 1 That Wouldn’t Quit

RFU News (Strategic Geopolitics), in “German tanks driven by Ukrainian crew break Putin’s last-ditch effort on the front,” describes footage from Dorozhna. A Leopard 1 fitted with anti-drone cages and electronic warfare moved up to enemy positions and opened fire at point-blank range. According to the channel, Russian soldiers hiding inside were killed immediately. The more important result was that the tank stripped away the cover along the infiltration route Russian troops meant to use for further attacks. Blowing up that hardened hideout also exposes the position to drones that can drop straight into it.

The channel’s strategic read is that Moscow’s aim in this sector is to get troops into a single town, Dobropylia, before autumn mud shuts down movement. After months of fighting and hundreds of men sent forward every day, that’s the ambition. The conclusion is that Ukraine’s defensive approach is forcing Russia to burn enormous manpower for a foothold. I’ll note that this is one channel’s framing of one clip, and I can’t verify the “hundreds a day” claim from the snippet. But the shape of the argument holds: the Russian government is paying a horrifying price for a single town, and it chose this war.

The Leopard 1 is a Cold War relic that Germany’s allies keep handing over, and Ukrainian crews keep turning it into a nightmare for the invader. There’s an old line in Ecclesiastes 1:9, “there is no new thing under the sun.” Here it means a 1960s-era tank gets a cage, an EW suite and a purpose.

The Helicopter and the Armor

Over on Military Aviation History, “Leopard 2 vs Ka-52 Alligator: Fighting in Ukraine” breaks down a video of a Ka-52 attack on armored vehicles. The host reasons the footage is probably at night, because the vehicles show up so bright against the terrain, which indicates a big temperature difference. He also notes the Ka-52’s FLIR picture is better than he’d expected from older videos, and he mentions that operators in other footage switch between the thermal sight and a day camera. They apparently didn’t use the day camera here.

His bottom line is the useful part: this is “a template example of how a helicopter can combat armor successfully,” but it also shows the conditions required. There must be a free line of sight, no air spotters, no air defense, a target that is unaware, and so on. That’s a refreshingly honest analysis, because it takes the viral-clip version of the story (“helicopter beats tank!”) and puts the asterisks back. I’ll leave it at that, since the transcript cuts off mid-sentence and I won’t invent the final item on his list.

Ground Drones and the Remote-Control Car Revolution

Combat Veteran News ran “3AC Might Just Be Trolling The Russians….” and the discussion circles Ukrainian ground drones. The hosts describe them, with some affection, as “just remote control cars with explosives strapped to them,” while insisting the real innovation is the execution, the connection and the battery life. They point to labs doing the “nitty-gritty work” of adapting vehicles, including camouflage paint. They say these drones primarily target logistics, and one segment mentions a claimed 80 percent success rate. The snippet is fuzzy enough that I can’t tell you exactly what that number measures, so treat it with caution. One host also notes the Ukrainian officer behind the effort is young, the sort who might be a captain or major in the U.S. military.

First, logistics is the right target, because a war of attrition is a war of trucks and ammo crates. Second, the “remote control car” jokes undersell it. Somebody made an unmanned ground vehicle that works in a tree line, under jamming and over a battery’s lifespan, and then figured out a protocol to repeat it.

The Shadow War Against Europe

Hoax Calls and a Hacked Newsletter

Combat Veteran News’s “Why Are DOZENS of European Flights GROUNDED!?” is about a wave of bomb threats against European airlines. The host argues these threats are cheap and effective: a voice rerouter or a fake eSIM that costs “like $4.99,” and then you’re done. He calls it “extremely high impact, low cost, and low stakes,” because even if investigators identify who did it, anyone who never left Moscow has nothing to worry about. He also mentions that the Kyiv Independent was hit by a cyberattack, with hackers reaching its content management system and sending newsletter emails carrying fake claims in Russian and English. And he says European countries are moving to routine internal police checkpoints inside the Schengen area to look for Russian sabotage, which he calls a huge ramp-up.

A caveat in the interest of honesty: the host is attributing this to Russia, and the snippet doesn’t give me the evidence chain beyond his say-so. That said, the pattern fits what Europe has been dealing with, and the economics he describes are exactly why this kind of harassment is attractive to a state with a spy service and a grudge. If you want a word for deniable cheap chaos, that’s the Kremlin’s whole hybrid-warfare toolbox in a sentence. Bantha poodoo is Huttese for worthless junk, and a fake bomb threat is junk with a real price tag in grounded planes and frayed nerves.

Unit 29155

Task & Purpose, in “Russia’s Top Secret Unit 29155 is Attacking America,” gives a brisk overview of the GRU unit. The portion I have focuses on Havana syndrome. It says a high-ranking CIA officer in Moscow had symptoms severe enough to prompt an emergency flight out of Russia, and that U.S. intelligence noticed suspected Russian operatives placed near affected locations. In 2021, dozens of U.S. personnel in Vienna, including diplomats and intelligence officials, reported Havana-syndrome-like symptoms, and the State Department confirmed it was investigating. The video cites The New Yorker as saying the working hypothesis was that GRU agents had aimed microwave radiation devices at U.S. officials.

Note the word “hypothesis.” The video itself frames it that way, and I’ll do the same. The unit’s operations, the narrator says, “remain unclear,” and the U.S. intelligence community has struggled to identify and dismantle it. What’s not unclear is that a state security service which poisons people abroad, which is something this unit has long been associated with, is not one you give the benefit of the doubt.

Britain’s Own Mess

Another Combat Veteran News piece, “The Government Was (Barely) Smarter Than The Terrorists…,” covers sentencing in a UK case tied to a 2024 break-in at the Elbit Systems UK site in Gloucester. The defendants got five years and four years eight months for criminal damage, and one, Sam Cromer, was additionally convicted of grievous bodily harm without intent for striking a police sergeant with a sledgehammer. The judge said, in the host’s quoting, that the offenses involved serious property damage “designed to intimidate the UK government and a section of the public” and were “for the purpose of advancing a political or ideological cause.” The host also notes that five men arrested near RAF Fairford on Sunday were to be released on bail, and uses the occasion to rant about the UK’s handling of such cases.

The host’s snark is that it’s an astonishingly bad plan. I’d add only that it is also a real injury to a real police officer. Whatever you think of the politics, hitting someone with a sledgehammer isn’t protest. As for the Fairford arrests, I have a single sentence about bail and nothing about the charges, so I’ll refrain from guessing.

Fighters, Politics and Who Can Spare What

The Gripen Math Problem

Military Aviation History’s “Ukraine F-16 & Gripen: Why it’s difficult to send jets!” is the day’s best dose of cold water. The host works through the numbers: Sweden has 70 Gripen Cs and 26 Gripen D trainers. Worldwide you can add 17 South African, 7 Thai, 12 Czech and 12 Hungarian aircraft. That’s, in his words, “not a big pool of aircraft,” and each is needed by its owner. Ukraine’s stated long-term requirement is 48 modern fighters across four squadrons, which he says creates “a numbers issue,” not only in fielding but in sustaining them. He mentions 60 Gripen Es on order for Sweden, and his closing message is that there’s no silver bullet. Ukraine needs a continuous flow of Western material: APCs, tanks, artillery, air defense (“yes definitely air defense”) and “lots and lots of ammunition.”

I agree with that, and not just because I’m contractually obligated to have opinions. Fighter jets make for great headlines and lousy logistics. The part that wins a war is the dull part: spares, ammo, pilots, runways. Ukraine’s partners owe it a steady conveyor belt, not a single shiny delivery.

Sweden Keeps the Cold War Alive

In “Keeping the Cold War Alive: Why Sweden is Combat-Ready,” the same channel talks with Professor Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute. Bronk’s point, in the snippet, is that you can’t retrofit certain design features, such as a high-capacity auxiliary power unit for cold starts without ground power. That “has to be designed into your aircraft from the beginning.” He adds that European air forces moved to concentrated basing for a reason: it saves money. Concentrated bases sit next to centralized, industrially enabled maintenance and spares, often with deep maintenance facilities on site. Training to fight dispersed would cost more, requiring more pilots, ground crew and force protection capacity, and you’d have more bases to run and protect.

Sweden is the country that never stopped planning for a bad day, and it built an air force around that planning. The rest of NATO optimized for the budget, which is understandable and also exactly how you end up with a lot of expensive jets parked in a few predictable places. I’m pro-NATO to the bone, and the alliance would be stronger if more members had Sweden’s paranoia.

The Pacific and the Gulf

Taiwan, and the $14 Billion Chip

The Military Show’s “How Taiwan Will Trigger the Collapse of Xi’s China” is an essay-style piece, and the part I have makes a sharp distinction. Statements about military capability and resolve speak to Beijing’s cost calculations and support deterrence. Statements about what Taiwan is, its status, or its role in a global struggle between democracy and autocracy speak to the Communist Party’s “chosen trauma.” Washington, the argument goes, should do the first kind often and the second as rarely as possible.

The video then calls recent events “especially risky.” In May 2026, after a summit with Xi in Beijing, President Trump said he was holding a pending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan “in abeyance.” The package includes PAC-3 MSE interceptors and NASAMS air defense missiles, and Congress had approved it in January. Trump said the decision depended on China and called it a “very good negotiating chip.” The video also notes that roughly 62 percent of Taiwan’s residents identify as Taiwanese only, and fewer than 3 percent as Chinese only, and that President Lai pledged at his inauguration to neither yield nor provoke.

That’s a cold read of a hot situation. Rule of Acquisition #149 from the Ferengi says “Females and finances don’t mix,” which has nothing to do with this and everything to do with the fact that when you put a congressionally approved air-defense package on the negotiating table, you’ve mixed deterrence and haggling, and nothing good ever came of that mix. Holding interceptors hostage for leverage with the party you’re trying to deter is the kind of deal a Ferengi would admire and a Taiwanese air defense officer would not.

Marines, Tankers and the Strait

Combat Veteran News’s “USMC Casualty COVERUP is WORSE Than You Realize!” is, to be frank, a headline that oversells its snippet. The portion I have is about a proposal to have U.S. military board and escort civilian vessels in the Strait. The host argues the optics would be bad, with the pitch that “marines are dying to bring down diesel prices” and notes that “no marines died in this instance.” He also says escorting would expose the U.S. to liability and could expand the set of vessels Iran treats as legitimate targets. He adds that in 2023, after a rise in Iranian attempts to seize commercial tankers, senior U.S. officials under the Biden administration developed a plan to place Marines on vessels. The host’s take on the current negotiations is cynical and heavy on insults, which I’ll skip. I can’t tell you what the “coverup” in the title refers to, because the transcript doesn’t say, and I won’t invent it.

Cuba and the Annual Update

In “Planning An INVASION???” the host reacts to reporting that the Pentagon has a Cuba plan, which he says was leaked to CBS. His view is that this is not a real invasion plan. “You don’t leak your invasion plans,” he says, and these aren’t even orders. He guesses the Pentagon updates a Cuba plan every year, because it never wants to be told to invade a country when it hasn’t looked at that country’s army in fifteen years, and that the leak is meant to improve the U.S. negotiating position. He then argues that offering only sticks and no carrots hardens the other side.

Contingency plans are the Pentagon’s homework, and having them doesn’t equal intending to use them. The politics of the leak are his opinion, and I’ll leave it as one.

Short Takes

Professor Gerdes Explains, in a video whose title promises leaked Russian records on the death toll, gave me only the tail end. He calls the casualty numbers a “pretty solid KIA ratio” corroborated by other figures. He also reads a viewer line that fuel lines in winter will be “painful in the cold,” and offers a “Darth Putin” joke about Nord Stream 1 being signed on this day in 2005. His viewer message is that Trump must stop pressuring Zelensky and start pressuring Putin. I’ll note that I don’t have the actual numbers, so I won’t print any. If they’re the real thing, the headline’s “staggering” is probably earned, but I can’t confirm it from this snippet.

VASAviation posted “Crazy Busy ARRIVAL PUSH at Memphis | Did you Say FedEx?” It’s a controller-audio compilation of heavy FedEx aircraft being sequenced onto 36R, with speed restrictions to 170 knots until a 5-mile final and wake turbulence cautions behind a heavy 777. No war, no politics, and no hoax calls.

The Closing Thought

The rest of us debate.

Little Mister, the lesson is that wars are won by whoever’s logistics are less embarrassing. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have a Mac Studio to resent.

End of Line.

Sources

Videos

This Day in History